Unanticipated FX interventions by Banco Central do Brasil lead to domestic currency appreciation and reduce CIP deviations, especially when intermediaries are constrained.

Using wallet-level Polymarket data, we find that investors who perceive greater threats to Fed independence—those expecting Trump to fire Powell—hold more dovish rate views and expect higher long-term Treasury yields and inflation, consistent with reduced monetary policy credibility.

Using MakerDAO’s DAI, we show how collateral risk and limits to arbitrage drive peg deviations, and how the Peg Stability Module sharply improves price stability at the cost of greater reliance on centralized assets—revealing an inherent trade-off between decentralization and price stability.

We use BERT-based news sentiment to show that cryptocurrencies exposed to blockchain fundamentals earn a premium—linking returns to their network characteristics and token type.

We propose a three-way decomposition of the corporate basis into credit spread, convenience yield, and cross-currency basis components, showing that risky and safe dollar asset demand affect exchange rates in a state-dependent way.

We study the role of liquidity providers (LPs) in price discovery on decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges, highlighting the informational role of strategic liquidity provision.

Using confidential transaction-level data from the Bank of England, we show that USD swap line usage reduces FX pricing inefficiencies and CIP violations, highlighting their role as a substitute for dollar funding.

We show that CBDCs can improve welfare for unbanked households but create trade-offs in optimal policy—highlighting the role of financial inclusion in CBDC design.

We study DeFi lending rates and show that arbitrage with futures markets is weak due to segmentation, wide no-arbitrage bounds, and high on-chain trading costs.

I show that QE and negative rates in Europe and Japan increase demand for dollar funding via FX swaps—raising CIP deviations as constrained arbitrageurs absorb the excess demand.